Thursday, May 24, 2007

The! Biggest! News! of! the! Day! - Not Greenspan's Warning or Network Appliance (NTAP)

Here are some of the contenders for today's biggest...news...of...the...day...

  • The warning from Alan Greenspan that a "dramatic contraction" is looming for Chinese stocks...
  • Data on the economy..."New orders for U.S.-made durable goods increased 0.6% in April, boosted by strong demand for metals"...
  • A weak outlook from Network Appliance (NTAP) that has the stock down poised to gap lower at the open...
  • Comments on the housing sector as it is said "The downward trend in the housing market looks likely to continue when April new- and existing-home sales are announced"...
  • "Solid opportunities" in China Funds...
  • Word of continued opposition to the News Corp. (NWS) bid for Dow Jones (DJ) from at least one member of the Bancroft family...
  • Weaker-than-expected earnings from Toll Brothers (TOL)...

While those are all stories worth watching, I think it is obviously clear that the biggest story is simply that fact that people are still listening to Alan Greenspan!?!?!

Let's get past the fact that he bears an uncanny resemblance to the evil Emperor from Stars Wars and remember this was the same guy who warned of "irrational exuberance" in December 1996. I guess some might argue that was a "good-but-early" call, but come on, look at the chart below...

You would have missed some of the best bull market meat there was and even after the bear market plunge, the S&P 500 (SPX) never went below the 1996 levels.

And let's not forget that Sir Alan also said - ""It was very difficult to definitively identify a bubble until after the fact -- that is, when its bursting confirmed its existence.""

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying anything about the valuation of Chinese stocks. He could be right, he could be wrong, he could be early. I am just wondering why anyone cares what he says...

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